In our context of chess in Malaysia, someone used it to imply that our juniors have been unfairly prevented from reaching the top levels and representing the country in major tournaments. Further implication is that the elite group (the IMs) are colluding amongst themselves to "keep" their positions, by "fixing" their games and agreeing draws while going all out against the juniors. How true is this?
Let us examine the recent SEA Games selection. This is perfect example because there are exactly five seniors and five juniors competing.
Rank | Title | Name | Rtg | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Pts |
1 | IM | Mas Hafizulhelmi | 2418 | * | ½ | 1 | ½ | 1 | 1 | ½ | ½ | 1 | 1 | 7 |
2 | IM | Lim Yee-Weng | 2248 | ½ | * | ½ | ½ | ½ | ½ | ½ | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
3 | IM | Liew Chee-Meng-Jimmy | 2302 | 0 | ½ | * | 1 | ½ | ½ | ½ | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
4 | Subramaniam Sumant | 2065 | ½ | ½ | 0 | * | ½ | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5½ | |
5 | Wahiduddin Kamalarifin | 2169 | 0 | ½ | ½ | ½ | * | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5½ | |
6 | Lim Zhuo Ren | 2080 | 0 | ½ | ½ | 1 | 0 | * | ½ | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4½ | |
7 | IM | Mok Tze-Meng | 2394 | ½ | ½ | ½ | 0 | 1 | ½ | * | 0 | ½ | ½ | 4 |
8 | Fong Yit San | 1945 | ½ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | * | ½ | ½ | 3½ | |
9 | Tan Jun Feng | 1849 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ½ | ½ | * | ½ | 1½ | |
10 | Fong Yit Ho | 1995 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ½ | ½ | ½ | * | 1½ |
The seniors played 20 games amongst themselves and 25 games against juniors.
Total | Decisive | Draws | Win % | draw % | |
Junior v. Junior | 20 | 8 | 12 | 40 | 60 |
Junior v. Senior | 25 | 16 | 9 | 64 | 36 |
Seniors v. Seniors | 20 | 6 | 14 | 30 | 70 |
Seniors v. Juniors | 25 | 16 | 9 | 64 | 36 |
Comparing draws between juniors we see there is 60% draws whereas amongst the seniors it is 70%. This is not a significant difference.
What it means is that the juniors were just as likely to draw with each other just like seniors would draw with themselves. So the argument that seniors draw amongst themselves to keep their position is not true because the juniors do the same thing.
You will see the difference between qualifying and not qualifying is how many games they won from each other. Look at Sumant's score against the juniors. Sumant won three games and lost one to the other four juniors. He qualified.
If you want to talk about a glass ceiling, it is actually constructed by the juniors themselves. So next time do some research and check your facts before putting pen on paper.
Incidentally, this tournament put paid to the "senior versus junior" argument. Only one junior managed to take a place from the seniors. Now you see why someone no longer talking about "senior versus junior".
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